Who Broke the “Gentleman’s Agreement”?
Four Questions to Walk You Through the Ren’ai Jiao Issue
 

Ren’ai Jiao (the West refers to as Second Thomas Shoal) has been in the news for quite a while. The ins and outs seem to be complicate. What has happened? Why is it still unresolved? The following questions may offer you some clues.
 
Question one: Where did the issue come from?
It all began since 1999, when the Philippines intentionally “grounded” its warship Sierra Madre at China’s Ren’ai Jiao (reef). The Philippine government, under Estrada and Arroyo administrations, internally and repeatedly pledged to tow the ship away once it got “repaired”. When Aquino III took office, the Philippine side stepped up “resupply” missions, and since 2023, has taken things to the next level by bringing lots of construction materials to the vessel. The real purpose is clearly to turn the warship into a permanent outpost.
 
Question two: what is the “gentleman's agreement” between China and the Philippines？
During the Duterte administration, China and the Philippines had reached a “gentleman's agreement” on managing the situation on Ren’ai Jiao. The “gentleman's agreement” is not a secretive one. Its major contents include: the Philippine side pledged not to consolidate the “grounded” vessel, not to build facilities on the reef and notify China before sending life necessities to the vessel. The goal is to keep things under control, maintain peace and prevent conflict, and the arrangement is separate from the respective position on sovereignty. Actually, by February 2023, the two sides had generally observed the agreement.
 
Question three: who has gone back on its words?
Since President Marcos Jr. took office, the Chinese side has notified and communicated with the senior officials of the Philippine government, seeking dialogue and consultation to resolve differences. Apart from the bilateral consultation mechanism, the Chinese side has invited the special envoy of the Philippines on China affairs for consultations to reach mutual understandings. 
 
Starting from the beginning of 2023, however, the Philippine side abandoned the “gentleman's agreement” and shipped in large scale construction materials to the reef.
 
This January, the Chinese side responded with goodwill the “new pattern” as suggested by the Philippine side and permitted a shipment of life supplies to the reef. Soon afterwards, unfortunately, the Philippine side again discarded the internal mutual understanding.
 
Question four: what role has the US played in this process?
It has done several things on different fronts:
Some US officials made open remarks in support of the Philippines in breaching mutual understanding with China and violating China’s sovereignty.
Some think-tanks in the US are “advising” the Philippines to stand against China. A project called “Myoushou” , for example, was launched in Stanford University. It focuses on the so-called security issue in the South China Sea. Funded by the US Navy, it brings together a couple of retired US military officers. But as the project name (meaning “an excellent maneuver of chess piece in Chinese weiqi”) suggests, the Philippines is no more than a chess piece for the US to contain China in the South China Sea.